IRVINE, Calif. — When asked to describe the importance of his team's World Cup opener against Paraguay this Friday, U.S. goalkeeper Matt Turner was unequivocal.
“(The first game is) everything,†Turner told reporters.
For the USMNT, across its recent World Cup history, that has certainly been the case.
While a curtain-raising victory in Los Angeles to build momentum and ignite the country's support would be the dream outcome, the most important target might be one that's somewhat less lofty: just don't lose.
Since returning to the World Cup stage in 1990, every time the U.S. won or drew its opening game, it advanced from the group stage into the knockout rounds. Every time it lost the opener, it didn't.
This tournament will be different with the format having expanded to 48 teams, but there is still precedent. In terms of structure, the closest replicas to this year are the World Cups from 1986, 1990 and 1994. Those tournaments featured 24 teams that funneled into a 16-team knockout stage, half the size of this summer's competition— which funnels 48 into 32.
Matt Turner was the USMNT's starting goalkeeper at the 2022 World Cup. (Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
In those instances, the cumulative “first game†record of the 24 teams eliminated after group play was two wins, five losses and 17 defeats.
“This game sets the tone for the tournament,†midfielder Cristian Roldan said. “A win against Paraguay would put us in a very good spot to advance from the group.â€
Sure, there are exceptions. Argentina won the 2022 World Cup after shockingly falling to Saudi Arabia in their opening game but, you know, not everybody has the luxury of having Lionel Messi on the field.
The Americans, with Turner in goal, drew Wales in their opener in 2022, a 32-team tournament in which only the top two advanced from the group stage. Gregg Berhalter's side picked up a point against England in the second game and went into the final group stage match against Iran needing a win.
A Christian Pulisic first-half goal, with the star sacrificing his body in the process, gave the team the lead, one that it barely clung to as the game went on. One Iran goal would have meant elimination.
As Mauricio Pochettino guides this year's squad, he will do so with the knowledge that four points virtually guarantees a knockout-round appearance, although the USMNT is aiming for more. Before a ball has been kicked, The Athletic's World Cup simulator gives the team an 85% chance to advance to the knockout stage and a 40% chance of winning the group.
The simulator says there is a 97% chance to advance if U.S. wins opener, 81% if draw and still 64% in the event of a loss.
“You can get a poor result and still win the World Cup like Argentina, but it's really tough to do so.†Roldan said. “For us, really, the first 15-20 minutes I want to see a strong performance. I want to see a team that's on the front foot and ready to compete at a high level.â€
Group D may be the most balanced of all the groups, with each of the USMNT, Paraguay, Australia and Turkey holding reasonable aspirations of placing first. Whoever wins the group will play a third-place team from one of Groups B, E, F, I or J in their first knockout game in Santa Clara, Calif., on July 1.
Second place plays the Group G runner-up — one of Belgium, Egypt, Iran and New Zealand — in Dallas on July 3. Third place will play a group winner from either Group E, I or K. That is favored to be Germany, France or Portugal.
“It's a long tournament, you want to win every game,†defender Joe Scally said. “You want to go as far as possible, it's important to get three points. We're confident from these last friendly games. It will be great to play here in L.A. in front of our crowd.â€
Added Turner: “We know what's at stake, it's a World Cup. The mentality is very strong.â€
