Prospek Pemudar di Kesepakatan Iran

The TWZ Newsletter

Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.

U.S. President Donald Trump met with top national security officials today to discuss a new Iranian proposal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed. Iran offered a new deal to reopen the Strait and end the war, with nuclear negotiations postponed for a later stage, Axios reported, citing a U.S. official and two sources with knowledge.

As part of that deal, “the ceasefire would be extended for a long period or the parties would agree on a permanent end to the war,” Axios posited. “According to the proposal, the nuclear negotiations would only start at a later stage, after the strait was open and the blockade lifted.”

The new proposal, passed to the United States by Pakistan, likely won’t earn the support of Trump, who has repeatedly demanded a final end to Iran’s nuclear program as part of an overall deal to reopen the Strait, lift the blockade, and make the ceasefire permanent.

“We have all the cards,” Trump told Fox News on Sunday. He also stated it is imperative the U.S. gets Iran’s enriched Uranium.

“These are sensitive diplomatic discussions and the U.S. will not negotiate through the press,” Assistant White House Press Secretary Olivia Wales told us Monday morning in response to our questions about the claimed Iranian offer. “As the President has said, the United States holds the cards and will only make a deal that puts the American people first, never allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”

The claimed Iranian offer comes as diplomacy has stagnated. Late last week, Trump called off a trip to Pakistan by envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner after Iran signaled it wouldn’t meet with the U.S. delegation there.

In an interview with Fox News on Monday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio pushed back on Iran’s claim that it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

“And what they mean by opening the Straits is, yes, the Straits are opened. As long as you coordinate with Iran, get our permission, or we’ll blow you up and you pay us,” Rubio stated. “That’s not opening the Straits. Those are international waterways. They cannot normalize, nor can we tolerate them trying to normalize a system in which the Iranians decide who gets to use an international waterway, and how much you have to pay them to use it.”

Iran’s armed forces would be the authority responsible for the Strait of Hormuz under the country’s proposed law for managing the waterway, a top official says.

Ebrahim Azizi, head of the national security commission in Iran’s parliament, tells state television that the armed forces are already in control of the Strait and are seeking to prohibit the passage of “hostile vessels.”

Azizi added that the proposed law states that financial gains from the strait should be paid in the local rial currency.

Clearly, Trump’s blockade aims to cripple Iran economically and pressure the regime into making a deal or face possibly years of economic ruin once their oil infrastructure degrades.

A satellite image emerged showing Iran, as of Sunday, still loading oil onto tankers at Kharg Island.

“So beware of talk about Tehran running out of onshore / floating storage in only a couple of days,” Bloomberg energy and commodities columnist Javier Blas said Monday on X.

Blas’ observation about Kharg Island was in reference to a statement Trump made Sunday on Fox News signaling an interest in maintaining the blockade of Iranian ports. The president claimed that Iran’s oil infrastructure could “explode” in about three days because of mechanical issues exacerbated by that blockade.

“When you have, you know, lines of vast amounts of oil pouring through your system, if for any reason that line is closed because you can’t continue to put it into containers or ships, which has happened to them – they have no ships because of the blockade – what happens is that line explodes from within, both mechanically and in the earth,” Trump told Fox News’ “The Sunday Briefing.”

“It’s something that happens where it just explodes. And they say they only have about three days left before that happens. And when it explodes, you can never, regardless, you can never rebuild it the way it was.”

On that note, WSJ reports that China is looking to export oil to China via railway in order to circumvent the blockade, even though this is a far less efficient method:

Iran’s armed forces should be given authority to target “hostile vessels” using the Strait of Hormuz under a proposed law, says the head of parliament’s National Security Commission, Ebrahim Azizi, on state TV.

BREAKING: Iran’s armed forces should be given authority to target “hostile vessels” using the Strait of Hormuz under a proposed law, says the head of parliament’s National Security Commission, Ebrahim Azizi, on state TV.

UPDATES

An Iranian F-5 combat jet flew through U.S. air defenses and struck Camp Buehring in Kuwait during the first days of the war, NBC News reported. The attack happened despite the aircraft being heavily outclassed by opposing aircraft and air defenses and the infrastructure to operate Iranian fighters being heavily targeted during this conflict, as well as the 12-Day War between Iran and Israel last June.

The news about the F-5 was part of a larger story by NBC that claimed Iran caused billions of dollars in damage to U.S. military assets and bases in the Gulf region. The targets included runways, high-end radar systems, dozens of aircraft, warehouses, command headquarters, aircraft hangars and satellite communications infrastructure, much of it we have already reported.

As TWZ editor-in-chief Tyler Rogoway notes, U.S. Marine Corps F/A-18 C/D Hornets F/A-18C Hornets from the VMFA-312 “Checkerboards” that arrived in the Middle East will bring special capabilities to the fight, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, should it reignite.

USMC F/A-18C/Ds pushed to the Middle East are extremely capable drone hunters,” he wrote on X. “Now significantly upgraded w/APG-79V4 AESA and APKWS air-to-air rockets. Good targeting pod etc. Marines better at dispersed ops. Expect them forward and working in counter air screen over gulf if needed. Good for hunting small boats too etc.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin today in St. Petersburg to discuss the war and efforts to end it. The meeting comes as a shaky ceasefire extension issued by U.S. President Donald Trump continues to hold despite Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and an ongoing U.S. blockade of Iranian ports.

Araghchi “explained the diplomatic process of Pakistan’s mediation for the complete end of the imposed war and the establishment of peace and security in the Persian Gulf region and the Strait of Hormuz,” his Telegram channel noted. “He considered the continuation of America’s destructive habits, especially insistence on unreasonable demands, frequent changes in positions, threatening rhetoric, and continuous breaches of agreements as factors slowing down diplomatic progress.”

Putin, for his part, said he hopes that the Iranian people will get through “this difficult period of trials and that peace will come,” according to Russia’s official TASS news outlet.

Putin added that Moscow is ready to do everything in its power to ensure that peace in the Middle East “is achieved as quickly as possible.” He also stressed that Russia “intends to maintain” its strategic relations with Iran.

As we have frequently noted, Iran and Russia have close military and economic ties. Moscow has reportedly provided Iran with intelligence to help its targeting of U.S. assets in the Middle East while Iran provided Russia with Shahed-136 drones used during the war in Ukraine.