Heres how the potential new U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal is a win-win for Iran

The emerging new deal between the U.S. and Iran, first reported by Axios, to extend a fragile ceasefire for 60 days and begin negotiations on Iran's nuclear program is a victory for Iran in four ways — and a win for the United States in only one.

“Overall this is a victory for Iran, which endured over a month of bombing, closed the strait, kept it closed and only agreed to reopen it via negotiated settlement with the United States,†Gregory Brew, a senior Iran and oil analyst at the Eurasia Group, told MS NOW. “None of the stated war goals of the Trump administration — replacing the regime, re-creating the success in Venezuela, obtaining a sweeping nuclear deal or even forcing opened the strait — were obtained.â€Â 

In a major win for the U.S, the proposed memorandum of understanding, which is still pending approval from President Donald Trump, says ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz will be “unrestricted†and no fees or tolls will be charged. For weeks, Iran has insisted that it retain control of the strait with Oman and be able to charge ships fees.

In a triumph for Iran, there is no agreement in the emerging deal regarding Iran's nuclear program or its stockpile of enriched uranium. The memorandum, according to Axios, contains “an Iranian commitment not to pursue a nuclear weapon.†That is not new. Iranian leaders have said for years that they will not pursue a nuclear weapon.

Under the agreement, which MS NOW has not independently reviewed, negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program will take place during the new 60-day ceasefire, which was one of Iran's demands.

Second, the memorandum contains no agreement on what will happen to Iran's 1,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium. There is only a promise to discuss how to “dispose†of it, which experts have said could mean allowing Iran to down-blend the uranium to a lower enrichment level and keep it inside Iran. 

Iran offered to do that before the war began, according to negotiators. Trump instead attacked Iran and has repeatedly demanded that the Islamic Republic hand over its enriched uranium to the U.S.

Third, there is no mention of limiting Iran's missile stockpile, which U.S. officials hoped to destroy during  the war. The latest U.S. intelligence assessments found that 70% of Iran's missile stockpile survived the war. Iran will still be able to threaten Israel and Gulf countries with its missiles.