As momentum appears to be building toward a peace agreement between the US and Iran, so too are hopes that the conflict's significant economic impacts will be abated.
Plenty of uncertainty remains over the exact status of the negotiations and the specific terms of any agreement, including around the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway for passage of much of the world's oil supply.
But if this really, truly is the end of the war and the strait is about to reopen, what happens next? When will prices return to where they were before the war?
Not anytime soon.
First, a logistical nightmare: Once the strait has truly reopened, a complex, multi-step process will have to unfold, including clearing the strait's existing bottlenecks, drawing down stockpiles, restarting production and making repairs.
What will happen to oil and gas prices: Traders have tried several times to test a new floor for crude, but it hasn't settled below $94 a barrel since mid-March. Brent crude futures settled at a little over $100 a barrel on Friday, and if traders are optimistic about peace progress, they may try to test the lower limits when trading resumes Monday evening.
JPMorgan analysts, who expect the strait to open toward the beginning of June, expect oil to average $97 a barrel throughout the rest of the year.
Historically, Brent needs to be in the $60 range for $3-a-gallon gas, noted Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management. The futures market currently doesn't anticipate that happening until 2032.
The longer this peace lasts, and the more evidence that production is rebooting, the lower oil prices could go.
But there's a lot of “ifs.â€
Read our full breakdown of the potential impact on gas prices and the energy market.
