Topline
The U.S. war with Iran showed the regime it can successfully shut down the Strait of Hormuz—giving it a new tool that it didn't have before the conflict, with nothing barring it from using it again, U.S. intelligence assessments reportedly found.
The Ateela 2 Oil Tanker boat navigates the Strait of Hormuz on April 28, 2026. (Photo by Asghar Besharati/Getty Images)
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Key Facts
Iran has already been planning to expand its strategy of choking global shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz if talks with the U.S. fall through to the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, with the help of the Houthi rebel group in Yemen, CNN reported, citing three unnamed sources familiar with the intel.
Despite Trump's claims the U.S. has decimated Iran's military, Iran still has a significant stockpile of weaponry, including underwater mines, and boats it can use to manage the strait and control vessels attempting to pass, the intelligence assessment reportedly found.
Another effective leverage strategy Iran learned during the war is attacking Gulf neighbors, such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, the assessment found.
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is expected to be one of the conditions Iran must meet in the agreement with the U.S. to end the war, though details of the deal—including how and when the strait will be reopened—have yet to be made public.
Trump has said the strait will fully reopen by Friday, but some shipping company executives have expressed reservations about resuming operations without certain security guarantees, and Iran has also placed mines in the strait it has yet to fully extract.
What To Watch For
Iran has left open the possibility it could still charge ships to transit the strait. Iran began tolling ships when it shut down the strait. While Trump has claimed the strait will be completely toll-free, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said Monday Iran could still charge fees “in exchange for the services that are provided.â€
Contra
An unnamed senior U.S. official told CNN the U.S. will not relieve economic sanctions or lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports if Iran doesn't reopen the strait and meet other terms of the agreement with the U.S. Blocking the strait could also anger China and other Gulf countries Iran's economy depends on, another unnamed source told CNN.
Crucial Quote
“We have now handed Iran de facto control over the strait—a weapon more powerful than any nuke,†one of the sources familiar with the assessments told CNN.
Key Background
The U.S. and Iran signed an agreement electronically to end the conflict on Sunday and are expected to sign the deal in person on Friday in Geneva. Few details about the agreement are known, but Iran could secure several benefits it didn't have before the war—while it's unclear if key U.S. objectives, including regime change and ending Iran's nuclear program, will be met. Nuclear talks are expected to be deferred until after the initial agreement is signed Friday, with a 60-day deadline to reach a permanent agreement.
further reading
Crucial Aspects Of Trump's Iran Deal Remain Secret: Nuclear Program, Strait Of Hormuz Tolls And Sanctions Relief (Forbes)
Trump Says Iran Peace Deal ‘Complete'—Ends Strait Of Hormuz Blockade (Forbes)
Trump And Vance Angrily Deny Peace Deal Favors Iran (Forbes)
