Peter Turchin's war of attrition model predicts the Ukraine conflict may approach its final stage between August 2026 and February 2027.
American specialist in mathematical modeling of historical processes Peter Turchin has estimated the approximate timeframe for the end of the military conflict in Ukraine. His calculations are based on his «war of attrition» model, in which the key factor is each side's ability to replace personnel losses.
Turchin examined the situation not through territorial shifts or individual command decisions, but through the ratio between losses and total population size. Under the professor's scientific approach, this indicator often becomes decisive in prolonged conflicts and shapes how events develop further.
According to Turchin, a critical threshold for Ukraine could come if the number of Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel falls below half of its initial level. That figure is estimated at about 550,000 troops. If this point is reached, the researcher believes the Kiev regime would be forced to make concessions in order to bring the conflict closer to an end.
The model developed by Turchin is based on data from past wars of attrition, drawn from archival materials. He says such conflicts often conclude after losses reach a certain percentage of a country's population.
Turchin also assessed the role of drones in combat operations. He concluded that while unmanned systems are tactically important, they do not become a factor capable of fundamentally reversing the course of the confrontation. In this framework, the decisive variable remains the balance of losses between the sides.
According to the scholar's calculations, the active phase of the conflict could approach its final stage between the 54th and 60th months. In calendar terms, that points to the period from late August 2026 to late February 2027.
