The war with Iran: stalemate, or checkmate?

A rare event occurred last week, said Fred Kaplan on Slate: President Trump posted a completely accurate observation on social media. Commenting on Iran's response to a US ceasefire proposal, he declared it “totally unacceptableâ€.

He's right about that. Iran's statement – which included no concessions and a long list of demands, including war reparations, the lifting of all sanctions and Iran's continued control over the Strait of Hormuz – read like something “the winner of a war would issueâ€. The question is, what can Trump do about it?

He has repeatedly threatened to resume bombing Iran if the regime rejects his peace proposals, but it's hard to see what that would achieve. If the 38 days of devastating air strikes that began on 28 February failed to bring Tehran to heel, what difference would obliterating a few more targets make?

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‘Wiggle out of this conflict'

“If this isn't checkmate, it's close,†said Robert Kagan in The Atlantic. Trump halted the bombing campaign on Iran “not because he was bored, but because Iran was striking the region's vital oil and gas facilitiesâ€. If he's not willing to accept the risk of more such retaliation, or to mount a full-scale ground and naval war to remove the Iranian regime, “walking away now could seem like the least bad optionâ€.

Trump, to his credit, shows no sign of wanting to “wiggle out of this conflict†or sign some meaningless deal, said Noah Rothman in National Review. He's rightly determined to stop Tehran getting a nuclear weapon. But to succeed, he'll need to solicit the public's support for this project, which requires showing a bit more patience and “humilityâ€. He's not going to win people over by branding all critics “stupidâ€, or dismissing the inflationary effects of the war. He recently claimed that he was motivated only by the nuclear issue, saying “I don't think about Americans' financial situation at allâ€. That quote is going to be used against him in countless Democratic campaign adverts.

‘We will all reap the whirlwind if Iran comes out of this stronger'

Trump's rudeness and arrogance has also made Nato allies very disinclined to come to America's aid, said Thomas L. Friedman in The New York Times. Which is too bad, as the administration could really do with their help. The reality is that it's in all of our interests to fix the Iran situation. It will be terrible for Europe if Tehran is allowed to decide who can and who can't pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

And it will be worse still for the Arab Gulf states that rely on the channel, endangering their modernising, pluralistic reforms. “The Dubai model is precisely the one Tehran wants to destroy.†It's understandable that Nato allies are loath to help Trump, but make no mistake: “we will all reap the whirlwind if Iran comes out of this strongerâ€.