The team with the best regular season record doesn’t always win the championship, and the horse with the most Kentucky Derby prep points doesn’t always claim The Run for the Roses. It’s been 12 years since the thoroughbred with the most points in prep races actually won the Kentucky Derby, which isn’t a great sign for Commandment. The Brad Cox-trained horse topped the Road to the Kentucky Derby 2026, which is the moniker for the event’s series of prep races, and he’s hoping to reverse history come Saturday.
Commandment is one of the favorites at 6-1, alongside stablemate Further Ado who has those same 2026 Kentucky Derby odds. They only trail Renegade (4-1), who drew the rail in the post-position draw. Those three horses were also the top three in prep points, while So Happy was fourth and is priced at 15-1. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions and best bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Gene Menez.
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A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet. In 2024, Menez gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby.Â
Menez excels on horse racing’s biggest days. In 2024 he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for a $5,303 windfall. Last year he nailed the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby for a $529.60 score and the winner and trifecta in the Blue Grass Stakes for a $761.96 jackpot. He hit the late Pick 4 on Kentucky Oaks day for $915.48. In the Kentucky Derby, he hammered the exacta and trifecta for a $1,045 payout. And earlier this year, on Fountain of Youth day, he struck big, hitting the late Pick 5 for $4,648.
Last year Menez put his handicapping skills up against the best horseplayers and finished 115th out of 643 entries in the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge, the biggest live-money handicapping tournament in the country.
Now, Menez has handicapped the 2026 Kentucky Derby field and revealed his picks. Go here to see them.
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Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Menez’s surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Renegade (4-1), even though he’s the morning-line favorite. The horse’s prospects dropped a bit when he drew the rail, meaning he’ll have 19 other horses veering in his direction. That bumping and jockeying for an advantageous position is a reason why no horse from the No. 1 post has won the Derby in nearly 40 years. The rail has seen just one Derby champion over the last 62 years, and it’s been nearly a decade since a horse from the 1-post even finished in the money.
Speaking of ITM finishes, that is something that Renegade’s jockey, Irad Ortiz Jr., has yet to do at The Run for the Roses. Despite being a five-time winner of the Jockey of the Year award, Ortiz is 0 for 9 in his Kentucky Derby career, with more finishes 11th or worse than in the top 10. His previous ride on the race’s favorite came aboard Improbable in 2019, and the horse crossed the finish line fifth, before being bumped up to fourth following a disqualification. See who to back at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Menez is high on Chief Wallabee, even though he’s not one of the top-three favorites at 8-1. After not racing as a juvenile, the horse has finished in the money in all three starts this year. He placed third at the G1 Florida Derby, but Chief Wallabee has potential for even more as trainer Bill Mott is putting blinkers on him for the Kentucky Derby. “If the blinkers make even a little bit of difference, then Chief Wallabee is a major player considering there’s not much difference between him and, say, Commandment,” Menez told SportsLine.
Mott clearly knows what he’s doing as he won his second Kentucky Derby last year with Sovereignty, also winning in 2019 with Country Horse. Junior Alvarado rode Sovereignty to victory, and the Mott-Alvarado duo is back again with Chief Wallabee. Add in that both the horse’s sire and damsire were G1 winners, and Chief Wallabee has everything you want in a Kentucky Derby longshot. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks at TwinSpires here with the offer code CBSSPORTS:
How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Menez’s top pick is a horse who was “the big winner of the post draw.” He also is high on a double-digit longshot who is the “best value in the race.” Menez is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who had a $1,045 payout at last year’s race.
